Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 05/0207Z from Region 3112 (N22E21). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (06 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 582 km/s at 05/1627Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/1628Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/1628Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2952 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 Oct, 07 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (06 Oct) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M 55/50/35
Class X 25/15/10
Proton 20/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 161
Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 158/156/154
90 Day Mean 05 Oct 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 010/012-009/014-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/25
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/30/20

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