Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 03/2122Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (05 Oct, 06 Oct) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (07 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 605 km/s at 04/1444Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/2340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/2336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 414 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (06 Oct) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (07 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 65/60/55
Class X 30/25/20
Proton 35/25/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 152
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 152/150/148
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 016/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 013/016-010/014-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/35/30
Minor Storm 30/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/30/20