Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 03/0940Z from Region 3450 (S19W10). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 03/1947Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/1948Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/1138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1297 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Oct, 06
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (05 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 154
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 160/160/165
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 161

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 008/008-013/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/15
Minor Storm 05/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/55/25

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