Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 03/1011Z from Region 3110 (N18W65). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Oct) and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 03/1218Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 03/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 03/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 282 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (05 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (04 Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (05 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (06 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 75/70/70
Class X 35/35/35
Proton 35/30/25
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 155
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 154/152/148
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 023/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 028/040-015/020-010/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/35
Minor Storm 35/10/15
Major-severe storm 20/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/25/15
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 65/25/35
Space weather
