Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/1246Z from Region 3455 (N25E58). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 02/0204Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0912Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/0648Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 283 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 158
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 158/157/155
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 011/014-008/008-013/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/35
Minor Storm 15/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 30/20/55
space weather
