Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 02/2025Z from Region 3110 (N17W52). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 02/2039Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/2015Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/2031Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 145 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Oct), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (04 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 154
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 155/155/145
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 016/020-027/040-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/35
Minor Storm 30/40/10
Major-severe storm 05/20/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/20
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 50/65/25

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