Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 01/0132Z from Region 3452 (N11E47). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 01/2031Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/0852Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/0852Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 454 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Oct, 03 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 161
Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 162/162/162
90 Day Mean 01 Oct 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 012/015-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor Storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/30/20

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