Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 01/2010Z from Region 3110 (N17W38). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 01/1242Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/1508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 01/0840Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (02 Oct, 03 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 148
Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 145/150/150
90 Day Mean 01 Oct 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 020/028-015/022-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/35
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/45/30
