Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 30/1622Z from Region 3112 (N20E76). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 594 km/s at 30/0556Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 30/0645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/0745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 129 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (01 Oct), active to minor storm levels on day two (02 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (03 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 137
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 032/050-028/038-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/40
Minor Storm 40/35/30
Major-severe storm 25/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 75/65/50
Space weather
