Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 29/1201Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 29/1416Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/0614Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/0728Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Sep), minor storm to major storm levels on day two (01 Oct) and active to minor storm levels on day three (02 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 137
Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 148/146/146
90 Day Mean 29 Sep 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 014/020-038/060-029/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/30
Minor Storm 40/40/35
Major-severe storm 15/25/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 65/75/60
Space Weather
