Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/0047Z from Region 3107 (S28W25). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (29 Sep) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 27/2202Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 120 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (30 Sep) and minor storm to major storm levels on day three (01 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (29 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M 25/20/15
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 10/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 135
Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 135/130/130
90 Day Mean 28 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 033/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 007/008-014/020-038/060
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/40/30
Minor Storm 05/25/50
Major-severe storm 01/05/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 15/45/75
Space Weather
