Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 27/0646Z from Region 3107 (S24W13). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (28 Sep) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 810 km/s at 27/1630Z. Total IMF reached 31 nT at 27/0428Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 27/0925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1256 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (30 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M 25/20/15
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 135
Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 27 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 015/016-007/008-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/40
Minor Storm 10/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 30/15/45
Space weather
