Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 27/0748Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 27/1438Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 27/0754Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/0833Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 370 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 145
Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 150/150/155
90 Day Mean 27 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/10

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