Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 26/0911Z from Region 3107 (S25E01). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 336 km/s at 26/2053Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2641 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 Sep, 28 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (29 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M 30/30/25
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 135
Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 26 Sep 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 008/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/15
space weather
