Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 25/0706Z from Region 3110 (N16E46). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 24/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/0945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/0951Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2130 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 135
Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 140/142/145
90 Day Mean 25 Sep 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 008/008-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/20

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