Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 19/0230Z from Region 3102 (S26W13). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 18/2326Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/2241Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 19/1058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 554 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Sep), quiet levels on day two (21 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 128
Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 19 Sep 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 008/008-005/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/35
Minor Storm 05/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/15/30
Major-severe storm 20/10/30