Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 26/1306Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (27 Jan, 28 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (29 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 568 km/s at 26/1850Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 26/2027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/0909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 351 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 Jan, 28 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (29 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 30/30/25
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 151
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/10

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