Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 16/0538Z from Region 3429 (N11W22). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 16/0223Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/0207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/1913Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 259 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (19 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M 35/25/25
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 140
Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 145/140/135
90 Day Mean 16 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 015/020-008/008-026/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/35
Minor Storm 20/10/35
Major-severe storm 05/01/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/35/60
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