Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 16/0949Z from Region 3098 (N18W91). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (17 Sep) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 16/1308Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 15/2138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/1540Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 16/1120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 304 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M 40/20/20
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 10/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 131
Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 125/120/115
90 Day Mean 16 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 012/018-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/15
Major-severe storm 35/30/10
Space Weather
