Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 14/2126Z from Region 3429 (N10E05). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 14/2103Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1408Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 200 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 Sep, 18 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day two (17 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 20/20/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 139
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 013/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 007/008-015/020-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/20
Minor Storm 05/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/30/35
space weather
