Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 15/0633Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 15/1745Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 14/2317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 14/2153Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 921 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Sep), unsettled to active levels on day two (17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 35/30/05
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 10/10/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 140
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 140/135/125
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 014/015-016/018-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/30
Minor Storm 15/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 30/35/30
