Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/1931Z from Region 3429 (N10E05). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 14/1433Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/1750Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 14/1737Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 411 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Sep), quiet levels on day two (16 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (17 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 40/40/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 145
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 145/148/145
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 013/015-007/008-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/40
Minor Storm 15/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/50
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