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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2022

By Keith Cowing
Press Release
NOAA SWPC
September 13, 2022
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2022
Space Weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 12/2344Z from Region 3098 (N18W36). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 371 km/s at 12/2235Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/0211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 13/0454Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 13/0325Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4758 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Sep, 15 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 154
Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 155/155/160
90 Day Mean 13 Sep 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 005/005-006/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/30

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