Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 11/2228Z from Region 3098 (N18W22). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 11/2127Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/1224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0509Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 12/1345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6040 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (13 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M 25/30/30
Class X 01/05/05
Proton 20/25/25
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 150
Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 150/155/155
90 Day Mean 12 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 009/010-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/30
