Earth

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2022

By Keith Cowing
Press Release
NOAA SWPC
September 11, 2022
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2022
Space Weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 11/1438Z from Region 3098 (N18W22). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 10/2104Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/0913Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/1824Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21637 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 152
Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 150/148/143
90 Day Mean 11 Sep 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 006/005-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/20/20

SpaceRef co-founder, Explorers Club Fellow, ex-NASA, Away Teams, Journalist, Space & Astrobiology, Lapsed climber.