Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 10/0155Z from Region 3423 (N16W16). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 10/0220Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 164
Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 160/155/155
90 Day Mean 10 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 012/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 008/008-011/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/30
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
space weather
