Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 10/1119Z from Region 3100 (S25E48). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 10/2053Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1700Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/0527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15502 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (11 Sep, 13 Sep) and quiet levels on day two (12 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 136
Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 128/126/123
90 Day Mean 10 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 008/008-006/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/05/20
