Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 09/0120Z from Region 3421 (N11W64). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 09/0354Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/1143Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/1058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 288 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Sep, 11 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M 45/45/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Sep 161
Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 160/155/150
90 Day Mean 09 Sep 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 007/008-008/008-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/35
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 25/20/20

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