Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 09/0213Z from Region 3096 (N16E33). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 08/2308Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/0658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11844 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Sep 126
Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 127/127/125
90 Day Mean 09 Sep 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05