Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 08/0442Z from Region 3425 (N23E43). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 07/2100Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/1719Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/1459Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 834 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (11 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 161
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 160/160/155
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 011/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 010/012-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/20
space weather
