Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/0947Z from Region 3098 (N15E17). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 07/2135Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/1635Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22580 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Sep, 10 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (11 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 127
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10