Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/0141Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 07/0027Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1910Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/1612Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15367 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 126
Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 07 Sep 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 014/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 008/010-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/10