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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2023

By Keith Cowing
Status Report
NOAA SWPC
January 25, 2023
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2023
space weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 25/1011Z from Region 3190 (S14W89). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (28 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 24/2133Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/1756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 25/1310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 389 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 35/35/25
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 172
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 170/165/160
90 Day Mean 25 Jan 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 010/010-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/15

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