Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 25/1011Z from Region 3190 (S14W89). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 24/2133Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/1756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 25/1310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 389 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 35/35/25
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 172
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 170/165/160
90 Day Mean 25 Jan 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/15
space weather
