Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 06/1833Z from around the West limb. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 06/0112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7271 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 126
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 125/122/120
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 021/035
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 010/012-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/10
