Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 05/0812Z from Region 3421 (N14W14). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 05/2057Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 05/1557Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 05/1756Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1869 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 143
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 144/142/142
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 014/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 014/018-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor Storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 45/30/20
Space Weather
