Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/1805Z from Region 3089 (S23W88). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (06 Sep) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 680 km/s at 04/2333Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/2319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/1251Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (06 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (06 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 30/05/05
Class X 10/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 130
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 125/125/122
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 033/060
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 025/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 018/020-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/25
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/15
