Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 04/1638Z from Region 3089 (S23W75). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (05 Sep) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 687 km/s at 04/1108Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 04/0147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 04/0142Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6689 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (05 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M 35/05/05
Class X 10/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 128
Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 126/122/120
90 Day Mean 04 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 023/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 040/065
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 025/034-017/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor Storm 40/15/10
Major-severe storm 20/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 70/30/20
