Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 03/0836Z from Region 3413 (N10W0*). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 02/2104Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/2305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 836 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 131
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 130/135/130
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 025/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 010/012-011/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 30/30/15
space weather
