Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 03/1648Z from Region 3089 (S22W61). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 03/1002Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 03/0847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 309 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (05 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 30/30/05
Class X 10/10/01
Proton 10/10/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 123
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 122/122/118
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 019/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 020/030-021/028-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/40
Minor Storm 40/35/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 75/60/35
