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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2022

By Keith Cowing
Press Release
NOAA SWPC
September 1, 2022
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2022
Space weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 01/1358Z from Region 3092 (S09E67). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 601 km/s at 01/0553Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/2227Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 170 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (04 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M 25/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 116
Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 116/118/118
90 Day Mean 01 Sep 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 009/010-012/015-021/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/30
Minor Storm 05/15/40
Major-severe storm 01/01/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/30/65

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