Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 30/2328Z from Region 3413 (N09W48). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 31/2042Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 31/1658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/1708Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Sep) and active to minor storm levels on day three (03 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M 20/20/15
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 140
Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 140/150/150
90 Day Mean 31 Aug 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 010/010-011/012-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/35
Minor Storm 05/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/05
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/30/70
space weather
