- Press Release
- Oct 4, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 31/0750Z from Region 3089 (S22W13). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 31/0253Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 30/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/2044Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 172 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Sep, 02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 113
Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 110/110/115
90 Day Mean 31 Aug 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/15