Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 29/2327Z from Region 3417 (S07E61). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 29/2209Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/1431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/1237Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 187 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 139
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 145/145/150
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 165

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 006/005-010/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/20

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