Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 30/0213Z from Region 3088 (S27W0*). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 30/1931Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 30/1919Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/0234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 334 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 126
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/15/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/10
