Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 28/2359Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 29/1846Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/0556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/0909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 216 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Aug, 31 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 142
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 006/005-006/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/20
space weather
