Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 29/1107Z from Region 3088 (S27W95). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class or X-class flares on day one (30 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 29/1410Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 29/0404Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/0310Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 29/0650Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (01 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (30 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 25/10/10
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 131
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 130/125/120
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 018/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 013/015-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 50/30/15
