Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 28/1650Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 27/2203Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 28/1813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/1422Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 332 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 142
Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 144/144/142
90 Day Mean 28 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 013/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/15
space weather
