Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 28/1619Z from Region 3088 (S27W87). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (29 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 28/0734Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 27/2259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0924Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at 27/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (30 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (31 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (29 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M 55/35/35
Class X 25/10/10
Proton 50/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 252
Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 126/120/120
90 Day Mean 28 Aug 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 020/030-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 30/15/05
Major-severe storm 15/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 70/50/25
