Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 24/1435Z from Region 3192 (N16W70). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (25 Jan, 26 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (27 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 24/1740Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/1957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/1038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 411 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M 35/35/25
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 180
Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 180/175/170
90 Day Mean 24 Jan 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 013/015-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 35/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/30/20
space weather
